Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

[Honka Honka Burning Love]

They launched some missiles at our evacuated base in Qatar. Anything more than that and we would have flattened every IRGC owned building.

So we raped them like Grok raped Will Stancil and they did nothing about it.

 

[Ghostse]

What?

Even without a CSG in the Gulf right now, 5th fleet has DDGs which could comfortably saturate Iran with TLAMs, not to mention they can strike from Diego Garcia without exposing host nations in the region to blowback. If we're considering involving allies in the region we'd just use our bases in the region in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The US historically hasn't launched missions against Iran from these bases as to limit host nation exposure.

Sorry let me clarify.

The US could have a carrier on station in days, but you are going to need more than one carrier to support a nation-wide rebellion in a country the size of Iran. Even Libya, with French airbases in range, needed a US carrier, an assault ship, the faggy mid-teens brit carrier and France's We Also have One to support operations.

Yes we have a lot of tomahawks, we could do a massive softening strike, but unless there is a full internal decapitation like Venezuela you are going to keep that up for weeks and probably months which isn't feasible at current without some reallignment of global logistics.

The US can strike from a number of bases, even using things like tankers taking off from SA/Israel, but the issue is we need to KEEP striking. This isn't a Midnight Hammer one-and-done, the intensity would need to be maintained, and trying to run strikes even from Italy would take a huge toll on airframes. To support a rebellion unless the entire regular Iranian army defects, The US will need either multiple carriers or bases close to theater and ideally both.

Host nation exposure is why I wrote off the Gulf States with the possible exception of UAE. None of those nations will want to support an early days campaign of airstrikes against rebels, especially until some sort of leadership emerges and they know exactly what they are signing up for other than "the Ayatollah sucks" as they might simply be trading one retarded group of Islamists for another.
The UAE might possibly decide this is their moment; I haven't kept up on UAE politics to say their current disposition, but they signed up for the ISIS strike missions very readily and have previously attempted to assert themselves in the region.

 

[A Cardboard Box]

The US can strike from a number of bases, even using things like tankers taking off from SA/Israel, but the issue is we need to KEEP striking. This isn't a Midnight Hammer one-and-done, the intensity would need to be maintained, and trying to run strikes even from Italy would take a huge toll on airframes. To support a rebellion unless the entire regular Iranian army defects, The US will need either multiple carriers or bases close to theater and ideally both.

Again, the US has a half dozen full service air bases we can strike from if we include the ones in allied countries.

 

[Riverfagg1599]

 

[draggs]

Sorry let me clarify.

The US could have a carrier on station in days, but you are going to need more than one carrier to support a nation-wide rebellion in a country the size of Iran. Even Libya, with French airbases in range, needed a US carrier, an assault ship, the faggy mid-teens brit carrier and France's We Also have One to support operations.

Yes we have a lot of tomahawks, we could do a massive softening strike, but unless there is a full internal decapitation like Venezuela you are going to keep that up for weeks and probably months which isn't feasible at current without some reallignment of global logistics.

The US can strike from a number of bases, even using things like tankers taking off from SA/Israel, but the issue is we need to KEEP striking. This isn't a Midnight Hammer one-and-done, the intensity would need to be maintained, and trying to run strikes even from Italy would take a huge toll on airframes. To support a rebellion unless the entire regular Iranian army defects, The US will need either multiple carriers or bases close to theater and ideally both.

tbh airstrikes to let the protesters take and hold tehran wouldnt take weeks or months, and that would be enough of a tipping point in the end. there'd be a lot of death throes but we wouldnt need to be doing dozens of sorties a day

 

[D. Dimmadome]

They launched some missiles at our evacuated base in Qatar. Anything more than that and we would have flattened every IRGC owned building.

Didn't they also shoot down a civilian airliner or was that during a different sperg-out?

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

So we raped them like Grok raped Will Stancil and they did nothing about it.

It do be like that, Ayatollah Khamenei.

 

[I love crystal pepsi]

Didn't they also shoot down a civilian airliner or was that during a different sperg-out?

Back in 2020 after that general got bombed

 

[Ghostse]

tbh airstrikes to let the protesters take and hold tehran wouldnt take weeks or months, and that would be enough of a tipping point in the end. there'd be a lot of death throes but we wouldnt need to be doing dozens of sorties a day

Tehran wouldn't be enough. You are thinking Syria where some form of Anti-government forces held most of the country's land area, so when Damascus fell there was virtually nothing left for the government. The Government holds the majority of the country, and their forces haven't been hollowed out by a decade of civil war. The IRGC got its senior membership ACK'd but their rank and file are still largely intact. Likewise the regular army is still intact and as long as their leadership doesn't coup, even if the Ayatollah & friends were forced to abandon the city, they would be able hold the rest of country easily as long as no one was able to peel away official government forces.
This is why I cautioned about not looking at Syria for how things will go down. Its completely different scenario.

It will all come down to if reports of Iranian Army defections are true and the scale. If the Iranian Army en-masse decides to mutiny, then its as you describe. I don't see things going down that way country wide, and I think its more likely coordination failures see the protests falter, get repressed, and smothered.
But the most likely "good" outcome would be a syrian civil war situation where anti-government forces and defecting regular army take and hold territory. But they'll need heavy tactical air support while they use both hands to attempt to locate their asses.

Didn't they also shoot down a civilian airliner or was that during a different sperg-out?

Different sperg out after getting sack-tapped by the Jews

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752

 

[BiC Lighter]

Retarded take. Its all of it. The 12-day war completely showed the Iranian people that the IRGC can't even do the most basic thing-protect the country. Furthermore, it showed that all the money and arms they sent to the Houthis/Hamas/Hezbollah didn't mean shit because the Israelis were able to punch that shit out with barely any firepower. Then add in the USA bombing the nuclear program, which many considered unnecessary, add in the DECADES of domestic unrest and the water issues AND everything else domestically (women life freedom, regime repression, the economy going to shit because of unnessarly pissing off everyone, spending all the money on arab bullshit and not domestic issues etc etc) and well, people just are done with everything.

The IRGC can mow down protesters without functional nuclear facilities and air defense systems. People go apeshit if they don't have access to water. It's the breakdown of daily life that leads to collapse, not muh 12-day slapfights.

 

[draggs]

Tehran wouldn't be enough. You are thinking Syria where some form of Anti-government forces held most of the country's land area, so when Damascus fell there was virtually nothing left for the government. The Government holds the majority of the country, and their forces haven't been hollowed out by a decade of civil war. The IRGC got its senior membership ACK'd but their rank and file are still largely intact. Likewise the regular army is still intact and as long as their leadership doesn't coup, even if the Ayatollah & friends were forced to abandon the city, they would be able hold the rest of country easily as long as no one was able to peel away official government forces.
This is why I cautioned about not looking at Syria for how things will go down. Its completely different scenario.

It will all come down to if reports of Iranian Army defections are true and the scale. If the Iranian Army en-masse decides to mutiny, then its as you describe. I don't see things going down that way country wide, and I think its more likely coordination failures see the protests falter, get repressed, and smothered.
But the most likely "good" outcome would be a syrian civil war situation where anti-government forces and defecting regular army take and hold territory. But they'll need heavy tactical air support while they use both hands to attempt to locate their asses.


Different sperg out after getting sack-tapped by the Jews

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752

The government is already struggling to control many of the biggest cities because whatever is causing its paralysis. If it lost the capital and didn't retake it quick it's hard to see the sinking ship narrative not becoming reality. Assad didn't run to play Switch in Moscow because his army got thrashed, he ran because his army gave up with barely any fighting. The ayatollahs are prevaricating, do that long enough people think you're losing and if you keep prevaricating that perception turns into reality

 

[Gandhi's Left Hook]

It's on telegram and I am a dirty phone poster. check the telegram group: Israel war room.



Guys, is it race mixing if this type of woman is my type? Serious answers only.

Persians are the true Aryans.

 

[3-2-1836]

Back in 2020 after that general got bombed

Even better, that was an Airliner DEPARTING from Tehran International Airport to the east, HEADING AWAY FROM TEHRAN, and was shotdown LESS THAN 3 MINUTES AFTER TAKING OFF

And that was mere hours after the Iranian military spent an entire week planning their limited strike against an deserted US base in Iraq.

That was the best thing in the world since Iran spent 40 fucking years bitching about the US Navy shooting down an Iranian Airliner in their propaganda and it completely shut them the fuck up because they literally shot down a fucking plane that took off from their own airport.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

Persians are the true Aryans.

Judean, Arabian, Greek, Italian, and Persian features are what God intended. Get the fuck out with that Nordic shit.

 

[3-2-1836]

The UAE might possibly decide this is their moment; I haven't kept up on UAE politics to say their current disposition,

UAE just got totally felted by Saudi Arabia last week in Yemen and completely surrendered the country to Saudi forces in less than 72 hours.

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

Again I've seen literally no confirmation of this outside of literally who Twitter people claiming such and such village was liberated.

IRINN is talking about "terrorist attacks in the border region" and how these terrorists are coming from allied countries. They posted video of people using guns in Kermanshah. The regime is admitting it.

not to attack but this is a pre-oct 7 mindset.

Pre oct 7th is "If we give them what we want, they will not attack us"

Post oct 7th is "They will likely not intervene but we're still bombing them occasionally."

 

[Ghostse]

Again, the US has a half dozen full service air bases we can strike from if we include the ones in allied countries.

see previous issues about regional politics. You launch from Saudi Arabia, this affects the rebellion's legitimacy. Use of gulf nations' bases is unlikely unless the situation stabilizes.

Turkey is possible, but it depends on E-dawgs mood on events. I don't keep up with Roach politics so I really can't say one way or another what they're going to say. If E-dawg is in, then strikes next weekend (provided the protests last that long) are possible. But my gut says he's not.

Egypt is a weak maybe. I don't think they are going to want to support a government overthrow on principal, but you never know. They aren't fans of Iran.

Jordan would be possible if Iraq can be convinced to open their airspace. I don't think that's likely but the right sort of pressure and bribes to Iraqi politicians could change that. (Or Trump deciding he doesn't give a fuck and blow up their AAD if they try shit; again I don't think that's likely but definitely can't rule it out)

Kuwait is possible but once again, I don't think the cost/benefit for Kuwaiti exposure is there at current, plus odds of them being viewed a Saudi Proxy. But that might flip.

I think unless a significant part of the army defects, if the US does anything it'll want CSG in place so the US can operate with no political issues or airspace issues.

The government is already struggling to control many of the biggest cities because whatever is causing its paralysis. If it lost the capital and didn't retake it quick it's hard to see the sinking ship narrative not becoming reality. Assad didn't run to play Switch in Moscow because his army got thrashed, he ran because his army gave up with barely any fighting. The ayatollahs are prevaricating, do that long enough people think you're losing and if you keep prevaricating that perception turns into reality

Supposedly they are having trouble with main cities. I've got my doubts. And I also have my doubts over how much trouble they are having maintaining control now that they do whatever they want without the world watching. (CIA glow sats excepting)

Again, IA and IRCG are both intact and their equipment.... I mean, Arab maintenance practices and all, but its not been rotted through by a decade of ATGM strikes on their armor.

And the "retake it quick" is exactly what I'm talking about with the need for heavy tactical airsupport. Even if they lose these areas they will push in with intact armored units against protestors who likely will have at best limited ways of countering tanks. That's what breaks the back of a rebellion.

All this flips if the regular Iranian Army is moving to switch sides, but that sounds like rank hopium at current.

 

[Mr. Racewar1488]

Turkey is possible, but it depends on E-dawgs mood on events. I don't keep up with Roach politics so I really can't say one way or another what they're going to say. If E-dawg is in, then strikes next weekend (provided the protests last that long) are possible. But my gut says he's not.

Trump could tell Eragon that he'd get the F-35s he wanted and promise he'll be included in the Gaza Peace Plan if he lets us use Turkish airspace. But then again, Turkey has been sharing intel about the Kurds to the Iranians so maybe if we promise to look the other way if Turkey does some purges in northwestern Iran to secure a buffer zone like they have in Syria they'd be cool with it.

 

[Gandhi's Left Hook]

If we're considering involving allies in the region we'd just use our bases in the region in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

None of those countries is really our ally.

 

[The Dude]

Ver archivo adjunto 8402880
MES is coping hard, claiming Iran would launch thousands of missiles at everyone if the US bombs them. That's assuming we don't take out most of what's left of their high ranking officers in the IRGC the first night.

Last time we hit Iran we likely held back from taking out their whole leadership. I'm sure we knew where almost all of them were, and I'm sure we currently know where all of them are right now. I'm willing to bet Trump was hoping after what we were easily able to accomplish last time that they would come to their senses. Clearly they didn't, so I'm betting that he won't be so generous if he decides to commit once more. I will admit, if Khamenei is able to escape to his butt-buddy Putin's house unscathed I'll be very disappointed. That fucker decides to die ugly for what he's done.

So if Iran falls, which I think is going to happen, who do you think will be the next to fall? Kim? Xi? Putin? Whoever the spic is who took over for Castro when he croaked? Gonna be crazy if 2026 is the year that all the dictators end up getting yoinked by America or hung from the nearest lamp post by their people.