This is what the jews striking the IRGC HQ's in may/june results in.
The IRGC would have previously stomped on these protests before they gained steam, but with the senior leadship acked, the new guys don't have the experience or the connections.
Also because its a low-trust sand nigger society so no one sufficiently trains someoen to replace them because doing so means that person is likely to be a threat and stab you in the back.
This question always rings in my head whenever i see another terrorist attack happen in Europe/ 911 gets brought up. This whole fucking problem with muslims in the west primarily happened because of the west deciding to be morons and allying with the saudis which in turn, led to a domino effect that ended with the saudis destabilizing the mid east with wahhabism AND funding islamic terrorism. Hell the only gulf countries i can think of where they weren't complicit in terror funding is Oman( sultan qaboos is an interesting figure that i recommend people read about) ,kuwait and obviously UAE. In a better world, the west would be allies with iran and Saudia would get sanctioned up the fucking ass.
All of them are complicit. Oman, Kuwait and UAE handle large transactions for "Islamic Charities" and you follow the finances of any one of those, they eventually put funds in the hands of some Islamic terrorist group.
Everyone glazing that Iran was financing every plane hijacking in the 70s and 80s. The only reason they didn't fund Al Queda was they have an ethnic dispute with the Taliban vs any sort of disagreement with their methods or goals.
The glassing needs to start at the Eastern coast of the Mediterranean and continue east until you hit the pacific.
it'll be next weekend when all assets have been deployed. israel may go in first again
I think next weekend would be a mix of too soon and too late unless shit has really hit the fan.
Full disclosure:
I have not been keeping up with the latest on who hates who the most in the sand pit. Last time I wonked this out was the last big protests. Some of the nodes arrows on my relationship chart maybe out of date as I'm going off what I remember in a more recent-history flow.
Lets get something out of the way first:
Unless Saudia Arabia is going to go full bass-balled big dick and send
troops mercenaries from Chad over the border (hint: They won't, their army is garbage and they know it), unless the protestors are able to get a good percentage of the army to defect, Nothing Will Ever Happen. This isn't Venezuela where you can just pressure the next leadership, this isn't Syria where the rebels are awash in foreign arms, this isn't Libya where there is a government scared of its own army so has strangled them of arms and training.
The US has insufficient presence in the region to begin rolling bombings in support of rebels a la Libya. Harry S Truman is back in Virgina, and Trump is unlikely to deprioritize pressure on Venezuela unless the rebels are able to make a demonstration of viability - that is, Army units defect and they are able to take and hold significant terrority such they'll still be a viable fighting force in the 2-3 weeks needed to reposition carriers.
The US, much like Libya, would need to make use of regional allies to support operations. The issue in this scenario is the US' two primary regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have long standing animosity with Iran. Strikes even originating from these countries in support of the Rebels would dangerously sap their legitimacy. (There is also issues with the utter incompetence of Saudi pilots but that's a whole other subject. Just know its real bad)
Turkey is a possibility, and it is very likely any US strikes will try to use Turkey as a base instead of Israel/Saudi Arabia. There is no love lost between Iran and Turkey, but E-dawg might not want to hand Israel a geopolitical win like removing Iran from the map. There is also a Kurdish area of Iran, and Turkey is not going to want to see instability or that area become a conduit for weapons from any overthrow to wind up in the PKK's hands.
Turkey also wouldn't want to get involved unless a collapse of the Iranian government is likely, as again, if the Iranian Revolutionary government manages to come out of this, they have a way to return the favor to Turkey.
The next most likely US ally, Jordan, has issues because strikes on Iran would cross Iraqi airspace. Given Shiite control of the government, it is unlikely those strikes will approved unless Iranian collapse is all but assured. Basically Jordan might play a larger role in the "clean up" but isn't good to get the ball rolling. The US may try to involve Egypt, but Egypt also has a competency problem with older aircraft, and its questionable if they would want to get involved; Egypt is not interested in seeing a popular revolt overthrow the existing government for personal reasons.
Pakistan might possibly try to get involved, but they are still focused on India and are unlikely to try to press their claims to disputed territory. They are currently slap fighting with Iran but they are also hewing closer to China than the US.
Azerbaijan would likely try to do something, but that might threaten the current state of calm with Armenia and they are unhappy with Russia. Fucking with Iran would hurt Russia, but they might not want to be involved in order to keep their forces fresh for any action in that direction.
Armenia had Iranian support against Azerbaijan (as a Turk and Jew client) but recently pivoted to the US, but not all the way. They are unlikely to turn of their former patrons, and remove forces for counterbalancing Azerbaijan, unless there is a significant upside for them.
Afghanistan is too disorganized. Even if Biden hadn't fucked up there, Bagram would be pretty far from the action to be worth trying to reactivate.
The gulf states might allow territory use, and may get involved in clean up. The only possible exception is the UAE who would be a bit of a wildcard. They have been keeping their equipment up-to-date and have been involved in other international missions. They also have territorial disputes with Iran which could have a favorable resolution with a new government and close relations with the Saudis without being seen as a puppet. UAE has been trying to assert itself internationally and this might be something they opt to get involved in. But thye also have a significant Iranian population and may not want to get involved in shit-flinging this close to hme where they need to deal with consequences.
It is unlikely Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, or Kazakhstan get involved in any meaningful way. They lack any significant disputes with Iran that would be resolved by the government changing hands. Kazakhstan as an oil-based economy would view any return of Iran to the open market as a bad thing for them economically.
or to tl;dr:
The US has limited regional allies that could be used to aid any action in Iran, and would be willing to support said action, without delegitimizing the rebellion as a Saudi/Jew puppet.
And unless the Rebels are able to organize and hold territory, it is unlikely the US can get forces into position in time to aid said rebels in any meaningful way. US would be able perform surgical strikes to remove high-value targets, but the Rebels are likely to more than just strikes against high-value targets. They are going to need heavy tactical air support in volumes larger than the US would be able to supply without a few months of prep.
I hope they rename themselves to Persia
Make Iran Persian Again
