I’ve just realized that this entire operation is a giant gamble, the succes of which depends almost entirely on a new Venezuelan regime that subsequently submits to the demands of the US.
If they actively resist, then I don’t see a way to really win. He says they will send soldiers on the ground, sure and they can definitely defeat the Venezuelan military, but not without losses. Are they going to invade and occupy tiny zones around the nation’s oil fields and governmental buildings? Are they going to accept the losses and costs of a constant guerrilla war and maintain and active occupation?
Seems like the costs could easily be on the level of another forever war reminiscent of what happened in the Middle East.
In addition the Chinese and Russians have significant Influence and investments in Venezuela. Both of them are currently looking to gobble up land, so I think they’d be more than happy to finance and support Venezuelan insurgents and make any oil venture or regime influence extremely difficult.
In short if they bow Trump has made an extremely cost effective foreign policy decision. If they do not however, then this could bog down US resources for a significant period with the results not being entirely different than what happened to Afghanistan. Let’s see where the dice lands.