My take, is that the Democrats will not win another Presidential election until they have a genuinely moderate candidate, basically a modern day Bill Clinton. The Liberal wing has become far too radical and crazy for moderates to find appealing, for the past 9 years moderates are leaning redder and redder because enforcing your borders and controlling your cities for innocents' safety is not some crazy ultra right-wing shit. But to Liberals it is apparently. But forcing your elementary school kids to learn about gay rights is more important to them.
Also I think how fucked up the housing market and economy has been for a while is genuinely going to have a ripple effect for younger generations, young men are already poised to deal with economic hardships and, unless you're relying on welfare and enjoying it, that's never going to end up with them being pro-taxation on anything, at minimum.
I think Vance would easily sweep any D candidate currently poised to run. He's Trump with none of the baggage, even more isolationist, young, and he can actually articulate his points effectively and not just boomer-hardass-talk through everything. Plus he has some genuine humility.