Love Kari but she's basically a jobber candidate at this point. Which sucks. She just can't win for whatever reason.
I wouldn't say "jobber" because she was playing on Very Hard mode both times as a beginner. Arizona in the current era of mass mail-in ballots where elections are ran by blatant crooks like Katie Hobbs and Adrian Fontes, is something very hard to overcome unless you have a record as solid and appealing as Donald Trump. Lake was a news reporter before running for office (only *twice* in the recent past couple cycles, not *a lot* as some would have you believe), she couldn't do much other than be articulate but there wasn't much she could actually boast of that'll appeal to voters, unlike Donald Trump.
Also Note: 2 is not "a lot of elections". People on the Internet keep mindlessly circulating the talking point that "she keeps losing" but she definitely won the legal votes in her 2022 Gubernatorial race, and challenging the obvious fraud was the only righteous thing to do. John James, who is more establishment friendly than Kari Lake, lost 2 times in a row in Michigan statewide in 2018 and 2020, but was still financially supported by the GOP to take a House seat in 2022. The reason people mindlessly state "she keeps losing" despite Lake only running a measly 2 times, is because the GOP establishment wants you to think that being anti-establishment is a guaranteed loss and they promote that talking point to propagandize you into nominating people only aligned with them. If Kari Lake just regurgitated establishment platitudes, I guarantee you that the GOP establishment would NOT circulate the "she keeps losing" talking point if it only happened a measly 2 times.
For the 2024 Arizona Senate race, she was up against a shamelessly bullshitting mexican with a LOT more money than her, who was spending millions and millions of dollars in ads (at the START of 2024, MONTHS AHEAD of election season) reinventing himself as a moderate independent who will take stances against his own party - the same thing Kyrsten Sinema did in 2018 and the same thing Mark Kelly did in 2020&2022 - both in Arizona; both Sinema and Kelly used the "spend many millions close to the start of the year reinventing myself as a moderate while my Republican opponents bash each other for months in a late primary" strategy. Ruben Gallego was simply following that same playbook that worked against Martha McSally (McSally was an establishment candidate who got more financial support than Kari Lake but also went through a grueling primary in 2018 while Sinema spent millions portraying herself as an independent who'll go against the Dems; Mark Kelly did the same in 2020, after McSally was appointed a Senator after McCain's death) twice; it also worked against Blake Masters in 2022, who went through a grueling primary that ended in August, months after Mark Kelly was blasting the airwaves portraying himself as Republican-lite.
Outside of Arizona, the Fake Moderate strategy has worked numerous times in the past and present, and it requires a LOT of funding to counteract AND counteracting it usually requires not going through a grueling primary; case in point, Jacky Rosen(D), Tammy Baldwin(D) and Elissa Slotkin(D) were up against opponents more well-funded than Kari Lake, and they managed to overcome their R opponents Sam Brown(R), Eric Hovde(R) and Mike Rogers(R) because of how effective the Fake Moderate strategy is.
Bob Casey(D) took his race for granted at first against Dave McCormick(R), and paid the price in large part because Dave McCormick is a very rich man who spammed the airwaves (including at the start of the year!) with a lot of anti-Bob-Casey ads and a lot of ads glamorizing Dave McCormick's image, months before Labor Day which is when the ads tend to really begin. McCormick also still got more financial support from the GOP because he's more closely aligned to Mitch McConnell. Also note that in 2024, McCormick didn't go through a grueling primary - he was the only R candidate running and there was unity behind him ahead of time, and he was able to spend many millions more than the other 2024 R candidates. One more thing I'll say is that in 2024, McCormick ran a much more America First campaign compared to 2022 when McCormick's generic neocon campaign lost slightly to Dr. Oz, but came in a respectable second because of McCormick's powerful campaign war chest - so McCormick's victory is partially attributable to being less of an establishment toadie in 2024 compared to 2022; but still, $ was arguably the biggest factor. Again, money matters much in these downballot races.
Another example: Tim Sheehy (R) is a rich man who manage to take down fake moderate Jon Tester (D) who was Senator of Montana for around 18 years at this point. Sheehy nevertheless heavily underperformed Trump because Tester is experienced at playing the Fake Moderate strategy, and Tester also had a lot of money to spend on amplifying that from the start. Aside from having a lot of money, Sheehy was helped by not having a competitive primary to go through in 2024.
Money really does matter in politics, ESPECIALLY if you're a newcomer who is going up against opponents playing the Fake Moderate strategy (which sometimes involves the strategy of "Use my massive financial advantage to spam ads at the *start of the year* as opposed to waiting until Labor Day like most politicians, to reinvent myself'). Both Dave McCormick (R) and Ruben Gallego (D) did that. Why do you think figures in Kamala's campaign boasted of the amount of $ they raised? Why do you think Biden 2020's campaign and Hillary 2016's campaign did the same? Because despite how out touch they are, it is still a fundamental truth in modern American elections that money matters a lot. Without the massive Democrat financial advantage over Trump's campaigns in 2016, 2020, 2024 -- I guarantee you Trump would have massively improved his performance in all three elections. Trump managed to win despite the monetary disadvantage, but don't let that fool you into thinking money doesn't matter.
You know, why don't I give one more example? Glenn Youngkin (R) used his wealth to spam ads in Virginia close to the start of 2021 to portray himself as a moderate with crossover appeal, and was able to define his own image while Terry McAuliffe (D) took the race for granted. The result is that Youngkin won. Money matters. If Youngkin didn't have the $ to define his own image at the start of 2021 many months ahead of election day, he would not have won despite how sloppy and entitled McAuliffe was.
Negatively comparing Kari to Sarah Palin by saying "at least Palin won an election" neglects the fact that Arizona in 2022/2024 is A LOT harder for an anti-establishment R to win than Alaska in 2006. Aside from mass fraud, Arizona has also seen an influx of Dem leaning voters for decades due to the growth of its metro areas - same thing that happened to Colorado, Georgia, and some other states. It also neglects the fact that at the very least, Kari Lake won the legal votes in the 2022 AZ Gubernatorial race. There are many establishment aligned politicians who have *legitimately* lost twice in a row, but they don't get persistently attacked with the talking point of "THEY KEEP LOSING ELECTIONS! THEY'RE A JOBBER" because the establishment is just fine with having you believe those kinds of people deserve to run again. They're just fine with voters barely flapping an eyelid at someone who runs for a third time (or more) after not making it the first X times, as long as that someone does what the Powers That Be want.
They don't even want someone who truly is against the powers that be to even have a chance to win *once* which is why they focus a lot more amplified negative attention on Kari Lake than the hundreds of other politicians in recent electoral history who ran twice in a row and didn't make it. This same motivation is why they want to trivialize Trump's big 2024 win - they'll say "b-but he didn't win the popular vote as much as Biden did!" for instance. They'll also try to say "b-but ANY OTHER REPUBLICAN especially our favorite establishment toadies like Nikki Haley would have WON BY A LOT MORE! DEFINITELY BY A LOT MORE!" Be careful about falling for their propaganda.
