Chinese Military Operations in Taiwan

Are the Taiwanese missiles American made?
A significantly amount aren't. Numbers are classified, but they are the mass produced focus of the island's defence industry. What's confusing is they are almost all called 雄风, (heroic wind).

They have:
Hsiung Feng II - an anti shipping missile,
Hsiung Feng III - a supersonic heavier anti shipping missile.
Hsiung Feng IIa - A massive bunker/dambusting missile that can hit anywhere in China.😵‍💫
Deliberately confusing, to keep Beijing uncertain about how badly Taiwan could fuck up mainland China if war broke out.

They also have many other types of missiles and variants.
 
Maybe I'm dumb but I don't see how an invasion might work. They would need to ship a million troops across and all those boats would be sitting ducks for Taiwanese missiles I think.

You kill the anti ship missiles in the first few hours of the war and absolutely RUSH men and material over the straight on anything that can float. Ro/Ro ferries, LSTs, troopships, LHDs, aircraft, everything.

An anti ship missiles doesn't really work by themselves, you need a radar to feed it targeting data prior to launch and after launch it can be intercepted or misdirected.

A significantly amount aren't. Numbers are classified, but they are the mass produced focus of the island's defence industry. What's confusing is they are almost all called 雄风, (heroic wind).

They have:
Hsiung Feng II - an anti shipping missile,
Hsiung Feng III - a supersonic heavier anti shipping missile.
Hsiung Feng IIa - A massive bunker/dambusting missile that can hit anywhere in China.😵‍💫
Deliberately confusing, to keep Beijing uncertain about how badly Taiwan could fuck up mainland China if war broke out.

They also have many other types of missiles and variants.

The issue here is launchers, not missiles. 1,000 missiles means nothing when you're bottlenecked by a limited number of launchers and targeting systems.

China has more missiles than Taiwan and a greater production capacity, more ISR capabilities and a bigger and better equipped air force and more SAM systems, AAA, and radars.

Don't forget how many PLA/CCP spies there are on the Taiwanese government and military.

See how effective literally THOUSANDS of Russian Cruise and Ballistic missiles have been on Ukraine for the past 2.25 years. Russia has verifiably launched 4 digits of cruise missiles and Ballistic missiles in Ukraine and..... Ukraine hasn't collapsed.
 
See how effective literally THOUSANDS of Russian Cruise and Ballistic missiles have been on Ukraine for the past 2.25 years. Russia has verifiably launched 4 digits of cruise missiles and Ballistic missiles in Ukraine and..... Ukraine hasn't collapsed.
Yes, and you'll also notice Russia wasn't dumb enough for a sea assault on Odessa, neither did Ukraine attempt to overwhelm the tiny garrison in Crimea.
Contested sea invasions are almost impossibly tough at the best of times. Maybe if Beijing builds a world's worth of transport helicopters, they might be able to bypass the beach bottlenecks, but it'll be a one way trip for most of them.
It'll be a turkeyshoot, though getting Xi to return Jinmen island would be a right bother.

China has spies, yes, but they are surrounded by local friends living in a society far more fair and culturally rich than Xi Jinping's new dictatorship. A double agent is a recipe for disaster.
 
Yes, and you'll also notice Russia wasn't dumb enough for a sea assault on Odessa, neither did Ukraine attempt to overwhelm the tiny garrison in Crimea.
Contested sea invasions are almost impossibly tough at the best of times. Maybe if Beijing builds a world's worth of transport helicopters, they might be able to bypass the beach bottlenecks, but it'll be a one way trip for most of them.
It'll be a turkeyshoot, though getting Xi to return Jinmen island would be a right bother.

China has spies, yes, but they are surrounded by local friends living in a society far more fair and culturally rich than Xi Jinping's new dictatorship. A double agent is a recipe for disaster.
The little islands next to China that Taiwan administers are going back to the PRC no matter what

It came out that for the past decade the CCP has made sure that all vehicle and people ferries made in China are capable of loading military weight vehicles without issues.


So you have to count not use the Chinese Navy official landing ships but every large civilian ferry on Chinese service.

Plus their gigantic fishing and Coast Guard fleet can be used for ISR tasks and other things.

The US had multiple catastrophic double agents that went to the Soviet/Russian side despise being well to do DC types.

The CCP puts enormous pressure on their agents as they have access to their families and support networks. They also have billions in cash to pay people who are just after money.


The CCP also uses cross straight tourism and even funds foll religions in Taiwan to promote unification and Pro- PRC sentiment.

Hell, the KMT is all but a CCP lapdog at this point and they plus allies got a majority in the Taiwanese parliament
 
The little islands next to China that Taiwan administers are going back to the PRC no matter what
If China thought they could just walk in an take those islands, they would have already done so.

It came out that for the past decade the CCP has made sure that all vehicle and people ferries made in China are capable of loading military weight vehicles without issues.
So you have to count not use the Chinese Navy official landing ships but every large civilian ferry on Chinese service.

Plus their gigantic fishing and Coast Guard fleet can be used for ISR tasks and other things.
It doesn't matter how many shitty boats China has. What matters is if they can cross the 80+ mile Taiwan Strait and launch a contested amphibious landing on the few beachfronts capable of supporting such while under continuous voluminous fire. Just having boats, which aren't even made for the purposes of amphibious assault, isn't the problem.

The US had multiple catastrophic double agents that went to the Soviet/Russian side despise being well to do DC types.

The CCP puts enormous pressure on their agents as they have access to their families and support networks. They also have billions in cash to pay people who are just after money.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/02/taiwan-china-spies-beijing-espionage
The CCP also uses cross straight tourism and even funds foll religions in Taiwan to promote unification and Pro- PRC sentiment.

Hell, the KMT is all but a CCP lapdog at this point and they plus allies got a majority in the Taiwanese parliament
Russia thought that their invasion of Ukraine would be a cake walk because of the oodles of "double agents" that their intelligence services had supposedly paid off would cripple Ukraine's ability to fight. Come to find out that Russia is so corrupt, their agents actually pocketed most of the money for themselves, the turncoats universally turned tail and ran or otherwise didn't do shit, and now Russia is two years, going on three, into a quagmire that they have no idea how to extract themselves out of.
 
It doesn't matter how many shitty boats China has. What matters is if they can cross the 80+ mile Taiwan Strait and launch a contested amphibious landing on the few beachfronts capable of supporting such while under continuous voluminous fire. Just having boats, which aren't even made for the purposes of amphibious assault, isn't the problem.

It actually does matter, troops and tonnage carrying capacity matter a great deal when you're trying to get as many troops on a beach and on captured ports as possible.

The Taiwanese military isn't going to wheel out SPHs and towed guns and shell boats when China has air superiority over Taiwan and Chinese drones do to Taiwan what Turkish drones did to Russian columns in February 2022, or Syrian columns in 2019.

The moment a Taiwanese anti ship missile is launched it gives away it's launcher and that launcher gets targeted. The missile isn't a guaranteed kill either.

How fast can Taiwan mobilize? How many troops would be ready to go on D-Day? What happens if the military commander centers, communication nodes and arms depots are levelled by Chinese hypersonic missiles in the first 5 minutes? What happens when cell towers and the Internet doesn't work on Taiwan for a few hours or even days during and after D-Day? Remember, the average Taiwanese citizen in unarmed and actually doesn't like or actively despises the military....

Taipei is on a river that Chinese hovercraft and FACs can sail right up it.

Russia thought that their invasion of Ukraine would be a cake walk because of the oodles of "double agents" that their intelligence services had supposedly paid off would cripple Ukraine's ability to fight. Come to find out that Russia is so corrupt, their agents actually pocketed most of the money for themselves, the turncoats universally turned tail and ran or otherwise didn't do shit, and now Russia is two years, going on three, into a quagmire that they have no idea how to extract themselves out of.
That's not correct, Russian double agents were mostly oligarchs and the like, very few were in the Ukrainian military or Intel services and the ones that were were lower level and maybe a few mid level types.... Excepting an alleged Colonel or possibly a General in Southern Ukraine who made the Russian push out of Crimea and into Kherson and Melitopol a walk over.

The oligarchs told Putin exactly what he wanted to hear, just like Iranian defectors to Iraq in 1979 did with Saddam.
 
It actually does matter, troops and tonnage carrying capacity matter a great deal when you're trying to get as many troops on a beach and on captured ports as possible.
Tonnage is simply the first part of the equation, and a bunch of fishing boats and civilian ferries aren't exactly purpose built amphibious landing ships.

The Taiwanese military isn't going to wheel out SPHs and towed guns and shell boats when China has air superiority over Taiwan and Chinese drones do to Taiwan what Turkish drones did to Russian columns in February 2022, or Syrian columns in 2019.
China has to gain air superiority first. Taiwan does in fact have an air force. Ukraine has shown that it if perfectly possible for a second tier power to hold off a first tier power with tenacity and ingenuity in the air department. And Taiwan is far better equipped than Ukraine.

The moment a Taiwanese anti ship missile is launched it gives away it's launcher and that launcher gets targeted.
Any counter battery fire would have to get through air defenses.

How fast can Taiwan mobilize?
Fast enough. Any major troop build up close to the island will be spotted weeks or even months in advance. There are only a few months out of the year when an invasion is even possible due to the weather patterns in the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan has had decades to prepare. They will will have plenty of forewarning prior to an actual invasion.

What happens if the military commander centers, communication nodes and arms depots are levelled by Chinese hypersonic missiles in the first 5 minutes?
All important military facilities will be hardened against just such an attack. This is even assuming China has the hypersonic missiles to launch such an attack in sufficient numbers to matter, or that said missiles won't malfunction or fail to accomplish much even if they are launched. Hypersonic missiles aren't some wunderwaffe. As the Russian invasion and use of their own missiles showed, they are, at the end of the day, just missiles, and I doubt China has a lot of them.

What happens when cell towers and the Internet doesn't work on Taiwan for a few hours or even days during and after D-Day?
Not sure how much it would matter is civilian internet goes down. Military intranet systems will be hardened against attack.

Remember, the average Taiwanese citizen in unarmed and actually doesn't like or actively despises the military....
The average Taiwanese male has already done his mandatory service and can be quickly called up in the event of an attack. And there's no indication at all that the average Taiwanese despise their military which would be irrelevant regardless in the event of an actual attack.

That's not correct, Russian double agents were mostly oligarchs and the like, very few were in the Ukrainian military or Intel services and the ones that were were lower level and maybe a few mid level types
And there's no proof whatsoever that China's double agents, assuming they exists, aren't basically similar figures. Once again, Russia's double agents proved to largely be irrelevant, and most of the money was pocketed by Russia's own agents due to massive levels of corruption, which China also suffers from.

The oligarchs told Putin exactly what he wanted to hear, just like Iranian defectors to Iraq in 1979 did with Saddam.
And China's generals and bureaucrats tell Xi Jinping exactly what he wants to hear, because nobody wants to risk their career telling him something he doesn't want to hear.
 
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