Trump Enslavement Syndrome - Orange man good. /r/The_Donald and any public demonstration of rabid pro-Trump enthusiasm in spite of all reason.

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Doctor of Autism dijo:
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I swear, Republicans get off to being grifted or something
 
I've been in the elden ring hole for a good while now, but even then I've heard tale of a lot of middle-aged+ americans... somehow believing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be justified or possibly justified, because they're not sure if Ukraine actually was run by Nazis or not. It's breathtaking how enthralled that curious concoction of ignorance and laziness can be, portending an amusingly depressing decline.

But in MAD, we are now seeing that provocative powers like Russia and China are all too willing to goad the West, knowing that we also don’t want a nuclear holocaust. Knowing this, they have been emboldened to take greater and greater liberties, knowing that we don’t want “direct confrontation” with a nuclear power. The scary question is: how far can this be pushed, and what happens when the straw breaks the camel’s back finally?
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This sort of thing has been going on for a while, which I remember being called 'gray' tactics or something to that effect. Operating in ways that are clearly hostile and unfriendly, but not so much so that they trigger an active military response has been a strategy that both China and Russia have tinkered with here and there, with China's being far more effective (as it wields sharp power, the ability to use its economic largesse to lean on other countries).

I don't believe that this really means that deterrence is drawing to a close, however, for the simple fact that Ukraine doesn't have nukes; the greater powers are back to fighting proxy wars and economic battles, yes, but the strategy of probing to see how far one can go just before open conflict is tabled is still avoiding open conflict. Naturally, this entertains the possibility of a fuckup happening that spirals out of control, but that's sortof a constant everywhere and you can't really draft up an exhaustive means of preventing all sorts of fuckups. Cold comfort to the taiwanese, of course.
 
Rich Evans Ayypologist dijo:
I've been in the elden ring hole for a good while now, but even then I've heard tale of a lot of middle-aged+ americans... somehow believing that Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be justified or possibly justified, because they're not sure if Ukraine actually was run by Nazis or not. It's breathtaking how enthralled that curious concoction of ignorance and laziness can be, portending an amusingly depressing decline.
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You sure you don't mean "they're conflicted on which side to support"?

I think Ukraine does need to deal with the Nazi problem, but the problem is getting people to understand what is going on. If you told the average American that the monuments to Stepan Bandera are akin to Confederate monuments, would that put everything in perspective?

(Of course, then that would lead to questioning why the Baltic states honor Nazi collaborators who helped carry out the Holocaust as being anti-Soviet heroes... It would be a big powder keg, but a necessary one for democracy in that part of the world.)
 
Steamboat_Bill dijo:
Most of the countries on the Ukrainian border are in NATO. If he goes that far, then every NATO country will join in the war and things will get really ugly. I don't think Putin will go that far for one, because he's not suicidal, and for two, he's trying to get volunteers from Syria and weapons from China, which isn't something you do if you're succeeding in the third week of a war.
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My issue with that is, propaganda or no (it isn't just the warring countries we're talking here, I wouldn't be surprised if the Americas, their allies and China are also spinning their own events of the tale), What we do know is that Putin's trying to shoot down any outside help being sent to Ukraine, and hates NATO to a massive degree. Even if this doesn't end up as the WWIII the doomsayers and nihilists say and/or want, I doubt Putin would back down that easily after taking down Ukraine, and would likely want to see NATO fall too.
 
Jewelsmakerguy dijo:
My issue with that is, propaganda or no (it isn't just the warring countries we're talking here, I wouldn't be surprised if the Americas, their allies and China are also spinning their own events of the tale), What we do know is that Putin's trying to shoot down any outside help being sent to Ukraine, and hates NATO to a massive degree. Even if this doesn't end up as the WWIII the doomsayers and nihilists say and/or want, I doubt Putin would back down that easily after taking down Ukraine, and would likely want to see NATO fall too.
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How do you think twenty-something countries versus one is going to shake out? Especially after seeing the Russian performance in Ukraine?
 
Steamboat_Bill dijo:
How do you think twenty-something countries versus one is going to shake out?
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Poorly, but you also got to remember, Russia's got their nukes. And Putin's threatened to use them on a few occasions. Plus China's supposedly still backing them despite claiming otherwise, and afaik, Putin's not up for diplomacy.

Regardless of what happens, way I see it anyway, it'll become a bigger shitshow one way or another.
 
Jewelsmakerguy dijo:
Poorly, but you also got to remember, Russia's got their nukes. And Putin's threatened to use them on a few occasions. Plus China's supposedly still backing them despite claiming otherwise, and afaik, Putin's not up for diplomacy.

Regardless of what happens, way I see it anyway, it'll become a bigger shitshow one way or another.
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I genuinely think if things get that bad, someone's gonna snipe Putin or something because then it'll be clear he went insane.

But I reiterate, this is probably not going to happen unless something truly extreme happens.
 
Steamboat_Bill dijo:
I genuinely think if things get that bad, someone's gonna snipe Putin or something because then it'll be clear he went insane.

But I reiterate, this is probably not going to happen unless something truly extreme happens.
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I hope you're right on that, I really do. I hate playing pessimist.
 
I am pessimistic... largely about what happens after the war. It won't last too long, that much I know. We're nearly three weeks in and Russia is trying to bring in foreign mercenaries. I doubt they can go on for much longer at this rate, and that's when shit really hits the fan.

But what comes next? It is in nobody's interest to have Russia be a gigantic North Korea, even if Putin is desperately trying to salvage his economy... but I'm worried we're headed for Russia going the way of Germany after WWI.
 
Steamboat_Bill dijo:
I am pessimistic... largely about what happens after the war. It won't last too long, that much I know. We're nearly three weeks in and Russia is trying to bring in foreign mercenaries. I doubt they can go on for much longer at this rate, and that's when shit really hits the fan.

But what comes next? It is in nobody's interest to have Russia be a gigantic North Korea, even if Putin is desperately trying to salvage his economy... but I'm worried we're headed for Russia going the way of Germany after WWI.
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A lot of people on twitter are under the idea that if we put enough pressure on the Russian economy then the people will eventually get pissy and rebel against their dictator but I honestly don't see it happening. Russia has a long history of getting fucked by abusive strongmen since the time of Ivan the Terrible. A recent poll came out that showed something like 70% of Russians supported the move into Ukraine, although to be fair I have no idea if their attitude will chance after a year of economic isolation and poverty.

It's really sad but I think the country is going back to it's Soviet roots of mass repression and censorship. It's exactly like you say, give it a few years months weeks and Russia will be nothing more than a gigantic North Korea

I don't think Putin dying will magically solve the problem either. He'll likely just be replaced by a member of his equally shitty oligarchic pondscum. That's the most frustrating part to me. Putin, that autistic roundfaced faggot, will never answer for all the people he's killed and all the lives he's ruined

Trumpcunts have no idea what real tyranny looks like and how incredibly thankful we should be to be living in a democratic society
 
Almighty MoeBro Nation dijo:
A lot of people on twitter are under the idea that if we put enough pressure on the Russian economy then the people will eventually get pissy and rebel against their dictator but I honestly don't see it happening. Russia has a long history of getting fucked by abusive strongmen since the time of Ivan the Terrible. A recent poll came out that showed something like 70% of Russian's supported the move into Ukraine, although to be fair I have no idea if their attitude will chance after a year of economic isolation and poverty.

It's really sad but I think the country is going back to it's Soviet roots of mass repression and censorship. It's exactly like you say, give it a few years months weeks and Russia will be nothing more than a gigantic North Korea

I don't think Putin dying will magically solve the problem either. He'll likely just be replaced by a member of his equally shitty oligarchic pondscum. That's the most frustrating part to me. Putin, that autistic roundfaced faggot, will never answer for all the people he's killed and all the lives he's ruined

Trumpcunts have no idea what real tyranny looks like and how incredibly thankful we should be to be living in a democratic society
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Sanctions aren’t just about generating civil unrest or triggering regime changes. An impoverished nation can’t spend as much on their military and/or their civil servants become kleptocrats so that they don’t have to wait in the bread lines like everyone else.

Kill their economy, kill their ability to project power (eventually).
 
Fwiffo dijo:
Sanctions aren’t just about generating civil unrest or triggering regime changes. An impoverished nation can’t spend as much on their military and/or their civil servants become kleptocrats so that they don’t have to wait in the bread lines like everyone else.

Kill their economy, kill their ability to project power (eventually).
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Oh for sure. I don't think Russia will ever be taken seriously as a great power ever again. Putin wanted to prop up his country while dividing the West yet he's dropped the ball so hard with this little stunt that he literally achieved the exact opposite

I just disagree with the idea that he's going to be forcefully removed from power. I would LOVE to be wrong but I think it's overly optimistic.
 
Almighty MoeBro Nation dijo:
A lot of people on twitter are under the idea that if we put enough pressure on the Russian economy then the people will eventually get pissy and rebel against their dictator but I honestly don't see it happening. Russia has a long history of getting fucked by abusive strongmen since the time of Ivan the Terrible. A recent poll came out that showed something like 70% of Russians supported the move into Ukraine, although to be fair I have no idea if their attitude will chance after a year of economic isolation and poverty.
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For one thing it took three years after World War I for the Tsar to abdicate, and that was after he'd done many more fuckups in the meantime... But as for the second thing, how much value can you place in a poll where the answer you give may land you in jail?

Almighty MoeBro Nation dijo:
It's really sad but I think the country is going back to it's Soviet roots of mass repression and censorship. It's exactly like you say, give it a few years months weeks and Russia will be nothing more than a gigantic North Korea
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The Soviet Union, even at its most strained relations with the West, was not as isolated. Putin may say that the USSR was sanctioned and did fine, but the situation is not the same at all - Russia is a much different place than it was under communism.

Fwiffo dijo:
Sanctions aren’t just about generating civil unrest or triggering regime changes. An impoverished nation can’t spend as much on their military and/or their civil servants become kleptocrats so that they don’t have to wait in the bread lines like everyone else.

Kill their economy, kill their ability to project power (eventually).
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Yes, but killing the economy hurts the people who live there as well. This should probably give you an idea on what sanctions will eventually do to the Russian people - it will get very bad indeed. Do we want to condemn the people who went to jail protesting this unjust war to poverty for what Putin did? Or are we going to go ahead and subject them to a mix of the Treaty of Versailles and the Morgenthau Plan?

Almighty MoeBro Nation dijo:
Oh for sure. I don't think Russia will ever be taken seriously as a great power ever again. Putin wanted to prop up his country while dividing the West yet he's dropped the ball so hard with this little stunt that he literally achieved the exact opposite
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Even Trump is distancing himself from Putin now... but, then again, I wonder just what he's really thinking.
 
Steamboat_Bill dijo:
For one thing it took three years after World War I for the Tsar to abdicate, and that was after he'd done many more fuckups in the meantime... But as for the second thing, how much value can you place in a poll where the answer you give may land you in jail?


The Soviet Union, even at its most strained relations with the West, was not as isolated. Putin may say that the USSR was sanctioned and did fine, but the situation is not the same at all - Russia is a much different place than it was under communism.


Yes, but killing the economy hurts the people who live there as well. This should probably give you an idea on what sanctions will eventually do to the Russian people - it will get very bad indeed. Do we want to condemn the people who went to jail protesting this unjust war to poverty for what Putin did? Or are we going to go ahead and subject them to a mix of the Treaty of Versailles and the Morgenthau Plan?


Even Trump is distancing himself from Putin now... but, then again, I wonder just what he's really thinking.
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I’ve heard this argument before, that sanctions are inappropriate because they punish an otherwise innocent populace. I agree with you that sanctions will, often unjustly, damage individuals who have little or nothing to do with Russia’s aggressive stance.

The problem is that there is simply no alternative short of open warfare. And that is unarguably MUCH worse for a population. Gone are the days where it’s acceptable to starve out Leningrad, to lob V-2s at London, or to firebomb Dresden. The only alternative to a bloodbath is sanctions.

Or appeasement, I suppose. Historically that has been a poor choice too…
 
Fwiffo dijo:
I’ve heard this argument before, that sanctions are inappropriate because they punish an otherwise innocent populace. I agree with you that sanctions will, often unjustly, damage individuals who have little or nothing to do with Russia’s aggressive stance.

The problem is that there is simply no alternative short of open warfare. And that is unarguably MUCH worse for a population. Gone are the days where it’s acceptable to starve out Leningrad, to lob V-2s at London, or to firebomb Dresden. The only alternative to a bloodbath is sanctions.

Or appeasement, I suppose. Historically that has been a poor choice too…
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Most of Eastern Europe would happily firebombing Moscow into a smoking crater. It’s only the rest of NATO and the threat of nukes stopping them. And I think Poland would trade Warsaw for Russia ceasing to exist.
 
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