- Registrado
- 19 de Jul, 2020
Yea, the biggest question mark in whether Linus'll be fine is that its not clear how much LTT is subsidizing all his other stuff, and its not clear how big the black hole in LTT's pocketbook from the Labs is yet. If the other businesses are doing ok (Pickleball is collapsing, and other racket sports are declining as the fad wanes) and if the Labs isn't a black hole of material and machinery (Doubtful) then he'd probably be ok even with a limp valuation for LTT.It's not difficult to predict a lot of "influencers" going bankrupt in the future, every time revenue changes in any site they have their content, it's to lower the amount of money they make, so it's not out of the question that these newly rich people don't have any sense of preserving their money and just spend as much as they earn every month, maybe Linus is the one more prepared for this since he spun out some side gigs, but if the side gig isn't profitable, it's over for him.
If Labs is a huge stinker and the other businesses aren't doing so well, then he's probably fucked. Its already well proven that the LTT brand doesn't work without Linus, or at the very least that Linus is incapable of sheparding new talent to do as he does, which indirectly sets that nobody there can be a new face of LTT. The actual shoot sites and computer inventory is only worth scrap value, there's nothing special about it or old computer parts beyond novelty. His production pipeline is somewhere between middling to bad, with inflated labor and tooling expenses because he thinks it'll matter to be able to remaster a graphics card review in 8k 20 years from now.
So LTT's people aren't anything special because they can't actually run LTT, the assets aren't anything special, and the work process they have isn't anything special. To really make good on a buyout of LTT, you'd have to replace the talking heads with your own people because LTT's people can't hack it, and you'd have to replace the production staff and pipeline with something that isn't retarded. The hardware stack is nice in that you can pull out some random 2014 hardware for a video on a moments notice, but its not much harder for a good production schedule to wait the couple weeks an ebay buy would take. So while realistically anything is worth something, practically its all gonna sell under cost to cover the investment costs of fixing it. If everything else is ok, taking a weak gain or even a paper loss to ditch LTT's liabilities to retire won't kill him. But if the other stuffs doing rough and the Lab in LTTs skeleton closet is a bigger anchor than it appears, he might not be able to soak that loss. Especially since he's probably heavily leveraged right now for shit like the project house and the jet.
My shot in the dark? He'll not be fine. The sports center might limp along, the lan centers fucked because they're just foundationally bad businesses, and I don't see him ditching LTT when it's sensible. You're right that eventually platform changes will make LTT unviable, and I think he'll ride it into the dirt and seethe the entire way.