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USUS Politics General 2: Hope Edition - Discussion of President Trump and other politicians
Housing represents ~17% of the US economy. A price collapse in a sector of that significance is going to have negative follow-on consequences for a very great number of things, wages included. For a recent sobering example, see the popping of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1992 - their economy still hasn't fully recovered 34 years later.
Housing represents ~17% of the US economy. A price collapse in a sector of that significance is going to have negative follow-on consequences for a very great number of things, wages included. For a recent sobering example, see the popping of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1992 - their economy still hasn't fully recovered 34 years later.
But the Japan example doesn't work because we intentionally stifled their economy with the Plaza Accord. How exactly would a housing bubble popping depress wages across the board?
Housing is fucked. Not as fucked as some places, but speculation has fucked the market. It’s only a bubble if you’re planning on speculating, for everyone else it means you pay more in property taxes than you would would for rent in a multi family
Because if prices in an asset class that size collapse, prices in other asset classes will collapse as well, leading to recession. Wages and employment don't do well in recessions.
We've basically been overdue for a recession since COVID. IIRC Schumpeter saw recessions as a natural culling of the weak in Capitalism (even though we essentially are in a heavily bureaucratized-mixed-economy)
Neither Japan nor the US allowed their crashes to unwind all the bad assets because it's political suicide. Better to prolong a dull pain for decades, I guess.
Next question: "why the fuck should anybody care?"
Edit: this was rhetorical. The correct answer is "no one should care -- this is the same woman who tried to create a social media network ('Social Blade') with Zoe Quinn -- of Gamergate infamy -- specifically designed to encourage snitching on people IRL to get them fired from jobs, ruin their relationships, attack their families and so on."
There is nothing that anyone can say to me that doesn't convince me that she's not on dope. That girl is on some kind of methamphetamine or pharmaceutical combination that's making her crazy.
That is insane and is reason enough for a huge correction. Totally unsustainable. Selling houses to each other is not productive economic activity yet it does count toward GDP which says a lot about its value as well.
Daily reminder the democrat party fumbled tulsi so hard she worked for Donald trump instead of any position in the Biden cabinet imagine being so retarded and out of touch you let Kamala be your vp and throw away all of the possible votes that having a vet+ attractive woman+ moderate would have brung to your party especially after she slammed the shit out of Kamala truly must keep that goblin in the base ball cap (that old crusty fuck) up at night.
Housing represents ~17% of the US economy. A price collapse in a sector of that significance is going to have negative follow-on consequences for a very great number of things, wages included. For a recent sobering example, see the popping of the Japanese real estate bubble in 1992 - their economy still hasn't fully recovered 34 years later.
That's because they didn't let the real estate market 'pop'. They tried to force a soft landing by having the government prop it up (sound familiar?). So all they did was spread it out over decades and bleed people by forcing equalization of different sectors of the economy. For better or worse the Japanese have a very strong culture of not letting companies fail and not allowing people to become too rich. So they end up with lots of 'zombie' corporations that have been stagnant for years.
Not to PL but I've had to work with Japanese corporations before, and while the average jap is pretty smart, they have zero motivation to do anything outside the box. Pretty much all major technological innovation has to go through government ministries (JST/METI/etc.). And believe me, they're slow as fuck. It's like Germans but with even less english language skills and even more autistic. They also suck ass at programming. Every non-western Asian I've had to deal with on the programming side is >5 years behind the US/the west unless they work at one of the largest bleeding edge hyperscaler corporations for their country (e.g. Baidu in China). So basically only if they were forced to catch up out of necessity.
Here you can see the slow bleed. There was never a 'pop' like the 70s.
Also, if you look at wages it's basically flat for 40 years. Imagine 4 decades of stagnant wage growth while the rest of the world is inflating.
What did pop is the stock market. That's just because it was overpriced though, and the lack of recovery is because of what I mentioned before. They propped up the companies that underlay the stock market. They kept them propped up as zombie companies that don't innovate. I'm not familiar with what the sudden rise in the stock market is other than maybe the yen carry unwind and BOJ going on a buying spree, but I doubt it's sustainable.
Also, last note. A bubble popping or deflating is inevitable. IMO, popping is better because it avoids what Japan is running into. You have to let things fail so that you can rebuild. There's this thing where people think the government will be good about picking winners or losers. Government is always garbage at it, so it should instead focus on the legal side of allowing debt to be unwound and focus on speeding up recovery by ensuring courts aren't taking forever to take care of any of the legal side of things. Allow bankruptcies and other legal matters to be dealt with quickly and efficiently, and you'll get a quick recovery from any bubble popping. Rip the bandaid off.
Side note, check out China if you want to see a bunch of shit either popping or being inflated beyond all reason.
Debt:
I'm not really a China doomer like some, and I don't think you can accurately predict the collapse of a country as large as China. That said...they do seem to be speedrunning horrible decisions, as expected of a government moving back towards commie rule. Deng Xiaoping is rolling in his grave.
Daily reminder the democrat party fumbled tulsi so hard she worked for Donald trump instead of any position in the Biden cabinet imagine being so retarded and out of touch you let Kamala be your vp and throw away all of the possible votes that having a vet+ attractive woman+ moderate would have brung to your party especially after she slammed the shit out of Kamala truly must keep that goblin in the base ball cap (that old crusty fuck) up at night.
Biden? I doubt he thinks much of the Presidency that he was barely conscious for nowadays, except for reminiscing over how fucking funny it was that he fucked over the Dems on the way out. He’s the one that saddled them with Kamala after all.
IBM internal slide from 1979. Sadly, they were taken over by Pajeets who are wearing that company like a skinsuit and now ABSOLUTELY let the LLMs make management decisions.
Next question: "why the fuck should anybody care?"
Edit: this was rhetorical. The correct answer is "no one should care -- this is the same woman who tried to create a social media network ('Social Blade') with Zoe Quinn -- of Gamergate infamy -- specifically designed to encourage snitching on people IRL to get them fired from jobs, ruin their relationships, attack their families and so on."
Social Autopsy was the social media thing, and it was basically meant to be some sort of auto-doxxing database thing. We would now call it Digital ID only ran by a 3rd party. (Social Blade is a thingy that tracks the metrics of accounts on other social media networks, like watching Patreon accounts for how much they make or watches Youtubers or Twitch Streamers for sub numbers.)
Owens wasn't working with Zoe Quinn on it, actually, the real story is far funnier.
So Candace was a normie type as far as I know at that time, but she had multiple email addresses to partition her projects. Which now that I think about it is kinda suspect but whatever. (She's also incredibly well connected so, she might be a golem -- a constructed persona and career, I mean.)
But the long story short is she was getting feelers out for Social Autopsy with the various tech firms and Zoe Quinn, being from a rich as fuck well connected old money Democrat political family, reached out to those tech firms to get one of them to dox Owens for her. So Quinn reached out to Owens via the email that the tech execs gave her, and Owens called Quinn.
Owens has talked about this a few times and it's been a while but the story is something like Quinn had an absolute meltdown on her, trying to get Owens to abort Social Autopsy, telling her she was going to "ruin everything," warning Owens about the "evil racist gamers" that would target her and generally trying to get Owens to play ball with Quinn's already existing grifter network. I don't actually remember many of the SJWs back in 2014 being black, so maybe a Black Woman would have been a threat to Quinn et all as she'd be higher on the progressive stack. When Owens refused to immediately bow down to the preexisting queen bitch, well, Owens started getting massive amounts of racist emails out of the blue, during the phone call.
I mentioned that Owens had multiple emails for multiple projects, yeah? Well the email she had used to reach out to the tech bros, which Quinn had reached out to her on... wasn't used for anything else. It wasn't a public email. Quinn's cronies in her "Anti-Harassment" org "CON" -- yes, she named her fake org "con" becuase I guess calling it "scam" was too on the nose even for the left -- had started a racist mail bomb... against an email address basically only Quinn had. Making it so obvious who was doing it that even Candace Owens could figure it out.
Whoops.
Given how connected Owens is I don't know how things would have turned out otherwise, for all I know she still would have ended up being a psychotic grifting piece of batshit. But There's a non-zero chance that that stupid slut Zoe "5 guys" Quinn failed a trolling op so hard it drove Owens straight into the waiting arms of the right.
Edit: Or maybe all that's a little bit bullshit, and was just a cover story to give Owens "based street cred" among the new Right that was growing around the time Trump ascended. They did something similar with the Catboy Faggot and Ann Coulter, so, Who knows?
The US is better than some in this regard (housing contribution to the economy) and worse than others. ~16% (latest figure) is hardly the end of the world. Your wish for a "huge correction" wouldn't solve the problem, but would reduce the majority of the country to economic misery. Congrats on being a selfish, histrionic asshole - we all knew you had it in you.
