Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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MG-34 dijo:
It's always so frustrating when retards say the Shah was a tyrant (like that retarded faggot Jimmy Carter, rest in hell) and deserved to be overthrown. Considering what every other country in the region has to offer Shah era Iran was the best anyone was going to get. You also had American oil and tourist money coming in all to be replaced with stupid Allah shit covering every street corner and 75% of the GDP being sent out to every inbred Jihadi in the world that screeches Allah Akbar every 20 seconds.
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The reason the Shah was disliked was the Soviets ran a huge influence operation in Iran to flip it to their side. When the ayatollah took over and purged the commies the Soviet union felt fucking betrayed by them in the middle 1980s plus the US was covertly funding Iran Islamic government to fuck over the Russians.

Plus for the average rural Iranian at the time they thought that the shahs liberalization was destroying the country.
 
Catch The Rainbow dijo:
Ayatollah gave a speech


The message of honoring the leader of the Islamic Revolution to the great nation of Iran following the mass gatherings today, January 22

Ayatollah Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, in a message celebrating the great work of the great nation of Iran in large gatherings today and on the historic day it was created, emphasized: The Iranian nation exposed itself and its courage and identity to its enemies, and this was a warning to American politicians to stop their deception and not rely on treacherous mercenaries.

The text of the message of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to the people of Iran is as follows:

In the name of Allah, the Merciful

The great nation of Iran!

You did a great job today and created a historic day

These huge gatherings and full of determination nullified the plan of the foreign enemies, which was supposed to be carried out by the hands of internal mercenaries.

The great nation of Iran exposed itself and its courage and identity to its enemies. This was a warning to American politicians to stop their deception and not rely on treacherous mercenaries

The Iranian nation is strong and powerful, it is aware and aware of its enemies, and it is always present on the scene

May God shower his mercy on all of you

✍ Seyyed Ali Khamenei
22 January 1404
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It is a good thing i am not president, else i would just tweet out the 10 hour version of the Copeacabana song at them
 
The White House insider who bet on Maduro getting churroed just made a bet on Polymarket:
1768260994288.png

The tariff is Trump lulling Iran into a false sense of security. He did the same thing in June when we were still negotiating with them just before wrecking their nuke sites.
 
RodgerDodger dijo:
But this begs the question "strike what exactly?"

Just hitting random military targets is not likely to in any way support the Iranian People not deter the Ayatolla. The only thing that might work is selectively and surgically targeting IRGC and Basij leadership. Which Israel already seems to be quietly doing. But that's a much more complicated operation. And one that you don't want to just threaten.

He certainly does not want to take any "kinetic action" that harms civilians or protesters. Things like bombing the oil infrastructure is counterproductive as it cripples the new government you want. What are the viable options?
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I guaran-damn-tee you the Iran/IRGC cells at DIA, NGA, NSA, CIA, J-2 at CENTCOM, fusion cells, etc. all either share or have their own tiered static target list with several options calculated for effects. CIA and DIA will have HUMINT sources + probable CIA Ground Branch or other SOF guys for time-sensitive strike targeting.

Trump shows a preference for striking IRGC personalities and facilities so as others have pointed out, these are the most probable candidates for destruction. My personal recommendation would be to eliminate their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz but I don't know where that ranks on the priority list or if it's as much of a threat in the current environment.

Once we kick their already broken door in (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense), paralyze their command and control nodes, and re-establish air supremacy, we'll probably be re-addressing some of the nuclear facilities that we totally wiped off the planet last time (uh, right guys?) and hardened facilities that we've determined are very IRGC, probably with a preference for Basiji infrastructure.

Perhaps at the same time, depending on who has best placement and access, either we or the Israelis will be working on decapitating leadership personalities specifically. Again, I would expect this to overwhelmingly focus on Basiji leadership and other various IRGC players.
 
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I'll be surprised if Trump just limply negotiates a few more terms with the regime and then walks away. He's done enough sabre rattling to look weak if he backs down. Especially considering how well the Maduro thing went, so far anyway, he doesn't want to kill his current momentum.

But if he does cuck and leave, I think this is why:
Ghostse dijo:
The US just doesn't know who to bomb; even if the US started bombing the regular IA, they need to know what units are loyal to the regime, which ones are sitting on the fence, and which ones have or might turn to the revolution - you don't want to JDAM a general who might be thinking about switching sides.
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The US needs to know there's some major section of the army and/or security apparatus willing to switch sides immediately after we bomb. It's not enough for them to just walk away. Some need to actively support the protestors and take the reigns of power by force against the regime.

But if we don't know which commanders might turn on the regime, then we don't know who to bomb. We can't start blowing up the wrong military units and unintentionally knee cap the revolt.

Even if Trump didn't figure out that problem himself, he has plenty of military advisors that will tell him. We don't want complete chaos and the country splitting into warring sectors.
 
XYZpdq Jr. dijo:
the wife wants in on the action, but is concerned about gambling morally
I point out "it's all well and good to proclaim that you believe The Allmighty will prevail against the wicked. Do you have enough faith to put twenty bucks on it?"
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Unless you spend all day doing OSINT shit or have an inside source I wouldn't bother. Even I don't bother with it.



Massive protest tonight in Isfahan tonight.

Trump is meeting with his cabinet tomorrow so if we see even more C-17s and C-5s flying to the Gulf after that we'll know something's coming. I highly doubt Trump is going to back down, not after what he's said. I'd say the chance of a Happening this Friday after 5:30pm is 37% right now.
 
Iraqi source is hearing jets overhead. There have been no airstrikes in Syria/Iraq in the last few hours and the last time US was this close to Iran's borders was a month ago.

Mr. Racewar1488 dijo:
Unless you spend all day doing OSINT shit or have an inside source I wouldn't bother. Even I don't bother with it.
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My friend made $1000 on the 12 day war betting on stuff

EDIT:

1768264095582.png

Source is being backed up by Iraqi social media
 
RodgerDodger dijo:
But this begs the question "strike what exactly?"

Just hitting random military targets is not likely to in any way support the Iranian People not deter the Ayatolla. The only thing that might work is selectively and surgically targeting IRGC and Basij leadership. Which Israel already seems to be quietly doing. But that's a much more complicated operation. And one that you don't want to just threaten.

He certainly does not want to take any "kinetic action" that harms civilians or protesters. Things like bombing the oil infrastructure is counterproductive as it cripples the new government you want. What are the viable options?
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Level every single IRGC and Basij base in the country
 
Catch The Rainbow dijo:
Iraqi source is hearing jets overhead. There have been no airstrikes in Syria/Iraq in the last few hours and the last time US was this close to Iran's borders was a month ago.


My friend made $1000 on the 12 day war betting on stuff

EDIT:

Ver archivo adjunto 8411526

Source is being backed up by Iraqi social media
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what's realistically happening: recon flights to check if iranian military or irgc assets are on the move
my personal headcanon: they're airdropping reza pahlavi straight into tehran
 
Super-Chevy454 dijo:
Too bad then even the dark web like Tor could bypass this and allow Iranians some access.
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Tor doesn’t work if the underlying infrastructure is cut. It’s the Kiwifarms problem. The government can literally kill the announcements or turn the core IXPs off and outside of a satellite uplink (which they are trying really hard to jam) you’re not getting a packet out of that country.

I was thinking maybe before when governments forgot that dial-up networking existed that it would be a viable solution, but apparently they’re going after that too.

How do you fight back when they’re willing to break a fundamental piece of the Internet’s stack outside of Starlink or Iridium.
 
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