Ben-Menashe's credibility, in short, has powerful implications not only for Nicholas Davies, Robert Maxwell and Seymour Hersh, but also for Bush, Ronald Reagan and the so-called October Surprise-the notion that Bush, Reagan and the late William Casey, who in 1980 was Reagan's campaign manager, cut a secret deal with Iran to delay the hostages' release and so prevent Jimmy Carter's re-election. That allegation, broached earlier this year by Gary Sick, an Iran expert on Carter's National Security Council staff, is tantamount to an accusation of treason. It is a favorite theme for conspiracy theorists, and because it essentially forces those accused to prove a negative, it is hard to refute. And Ari BenMenashe, who has been whispering his richly detailed, highly suggestive stories into the ears of journalists for the past year, is a pivotal witness and a leading evangelist for the cult of the October Surprise.
There is, however, one slight problem: so far, much of what Ben-Men about himself, about his relationships with the governments of Israel and the United States or about the October Surprise--does not seem to check out. To be sure, there are some nuggets of fact in his flood of assertions. And since those whom he accuses-the Mossad, the Reagan administration and many others--presumably want to keep their secrets, Ben-Menashe is difficult to ignore. NEWSWEEK has recently made a considerable effort to evaluate Ben-Menashe's claims. That effort has included hours of detailed conversations with Ben-Menashe himself, as well as scores of interviews with government officials and other knowledgeable persons in Israel, Britain, France, the Soviet Union and the United States. Ben-Menashe has some defenders, particularly among journalists. But he has many critics-and some, like Israeli journalist and author Shmuel Segev, a respected expert on Israel's arms trade with Iran, say Ben-Menashe is not believable. Segev says Ben-Menashe is "totally unreliable and dangerous"--a man who excels in combining bits of truth with plausible speculation.